Pakistan’s rice industry—a cornerstone of its agricultural identity and export economy—entered FY2025 with a surge in ambition and acreage. Yet, while the cultivated land for rice expanded, the sector found itself grappling with lower yields and shifting market dynamics, revealing both resilience and critical vulnerabilities.
Acreage Up, Output Down
According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024–25, rice cultivation covered 3.90 million hectares, a 7.2% increase over the previous year. However, despite the broader sowing base, total production declined by 1.38%, from 9.86 million tonnes to 9.72 million tonnes.
This counterintuitive result stems from a notable drop in average yield, from 2,713 kg/hectare to 2,494 kg/hectare. Agricultural experts attribute this yield slump to multiple converging factors, including erratic rainfall, inefficient water management, a reduction in fertilizer usage, and the limited availability of certified seed.
“More land doesn’t automatically translate into more rice,” says Dr. Sanaullah Kakar, an agricultural economist. “Without improvements in productivity and technology, expanding acreage just masks deeper structural issues.”
Basmati Rice: The Flagship Performer
On the international front, Pakistan’s rice export revenues declined slightly to US$ 767.9 million during July–March FY2025, compared to US$ 828.8 million in the same period last year. The drop was largely due to a global fall in non-Basmati rice prices, even as export volumes held steady.
In contrast, Basmati rice proved remarkably resilient:
- Export volume rose by 14.8%
- Export value increased by 3.4%
Basmati’s gains were driven by higher demand in premium markets, particularly in the Gulf, Europe, and North America. Exporters noted that improved packaging, branding, and quality control helped maintain Pakistan’s edge despite growing regional competition.
Systemic Constraints and Climate Challenges
Beneath the surface, the rice sector faces a host of structural and environmental challenges:
- Water stress: With surface water availability falling short, and irrigation networks under strain, rice farmers increasingly face unpredictable and uneven water access.
- Fertilizer decline: Fertilizer offtake dropped 14.1% year-on-year, with notable declines in both nitrogen and phosphate usage, negatively impacting crop health and yield.
- Seed bottlenecks: Only 36% of national seed requirements were met by certified varieties, limiting the sector’s ability to ensure uniform quality and resilience.
- Climate volatility: Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns are beginning to impact sowing windows, pest cycles, and overall productivity.
Farmer Voices: Uncertainty on the Ground
For farmers like Mohammad Arif in Hafizabad, the yield decline has been both frustrating and financially straining. “We planted more this year, hoping for a better harvest, but input prices were high, and rains came too late. The output was less than expected,” he said.
Smallholders, in particular, struggle with limited access to credit, mechanization, and market intelligence. Their vulnerability is exacerbated when input support systems fail or when global prices drop unexpectedly.
Strategic Path Forward
To realize the rice sector’s full potential, experts advocate for a multi-pronged strategy:
- Seed system overhaul: Expand certified seed coverage and strengthen public-private partnerships in seed development.
- Water efficiency: Promote drip and alternate wetting-drying (AWD) techniques to conserve water.
- Agri-tech integration: Use satellite and AI-driven forecasting tools to optimize planting and harvesting cycles.
- Market reforms: Establish buffer stocks and minimum support prices for rice to stabilize farmer incomes.
The Ministry of National Food Security has announced plans to scale up climate-smart agriculture pilots and expand extension services focused on rice-producing regions.
Outlook: Resilient, But at a Crossroads
FY2025 proved to be a year of contradictions for Pakistan’s rice economy. While area under cultivation grew and Basmati exports stayed strong, the overall yield decline exposed fragilities in the system. The sector remains a vital export earner and source of rural livelihoods, but its sustainability hinges on bold investments, climate adaptation, and productivity-focused reforms.
“Pakistan has the genetics, geography, and expertise to lead in premium rice exports,” said Dr. Kakar. “But we must stop treating every good monsoon as a plan. Long-term resilience requires long-term thinking.”
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